How close are we to a recession?

Recession Watch compares six U.S. economic signals with earlier business cycles. Each reading shows the period it covers, so a weekly shift in jobless claims can be read alongside slower-moving GDP data.

Which signals does Recession Watch track?

The Sahm rule indicator, payroll employment and initial jobless claims track changes in the labor market. Real GDP growth and industrial production measure economic activity.

The 10-year minus 3-month Treasury spread compares long- and short-term interest rates. A negative spread means the shorter-term rate is higher.

How should I read a warning?

Compare how long a warning has lasted and whether other indicators point in the same direction. The dashboard’s monitoring rules describe where pressure is building. Official U.S. recession dates come from the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee.